Organisations are looking ways to improve their bottom-line and thrive against their competitors. However, modern organizations are extremely complex. Setting improvement targets too high without considering the company’s capability and its external and internal interactions will have little chance of achieving the set targets, which means project failure. Resource limitations often dictate the ability to work on improvement projects. Prioritization of projects is essential to sustain the trend of process improvement. This paper describes a risk model that integrates performance prediction with organisational capability score and level of difficulty to assess the likelihood of meeting performance gain targets. The risk assessment outcome indicates to the company when and where organisational capabilities need to be adjusted in order to maximise the chance of success.
:Project performance; organisation capability; performance effectiveness; performance risk assessment
John P.T. Mo, Boyd A. Nicholds, Assessing Project Performance with Uncertainty, Advances in Industrial Engineering and Management, vol. 4, no. 1, 2015, pp. 101-110, doi: 10.7508/aiem.2015.01.010
(size: 515.07 kB, pp. 101-110
, Download times:
 H. B. Shi, D. M. Wang, and W. N. Zou, 2014. Factors for Improving the Supply Chain Management Performance: a Survey of Chinese Toy Makers, Advances in Industrial Engineering and Management, vol. 3, no.1, pp. 13-20, doi: 10.7508/AIEM-V3-N1-13-20.
 L. Quarterman, 2007. Implementing lean manufacturing, Management Services, vol. 51, no. 3, pp. 14-19.
 R. B. Lanza, 1997. Performing a process improvement study, The Internal Auditor, vol. 54, no. 4.
 V. Grant, 2006. Six Sigma - starting SIMPLY', Management Services, vol. 50, no. 4, pp. 21-23.
 N. Hanenkamp, 2013. The Process Model for Shop Floor Management Implementation, Advances in Industrial Engineering and Management, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 40-46.
 A. Shukla, 2005. FAT results from Lean implementation, Plant Engineering, vol. 59, no. 10, pp. 31-32.
 R. A. Swanson, 1999. The foundations of performance improvement and implications for practice. Advances in Developing Human Resources, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 1-25.
 V. J. Mabin and S. J. Balderstone, 2003. The performance of the theory of constraints methodology: Analysis and discussion of successful TOC applications, International Journal of Operations & Production Management, vol. 23, no. 5/6, pp. 568-595.
 R. J. Baumgartner, 2009. Organizational culture and leadership: Preconditions for the development of a sustainable corporation. Sustainable Development, vol. 17, no. 2, pp. 102-113.
 R. Banuelas, C. Tennant, I. Tuersley, and S. Tang, 2006. Selection of six sigma projects in the UK', The TQM Magazine, vol. 18, no. 5, pp. 514-527.
 B. Marriott, J. A. Garza-Reyes, H. Soriano-Meier, and A. Jiju, 2013. An integrated methodology to prioritise improvement initiatives in low volume-high integrity product manufacturing organisations, Journal of Manufacturing Technology Management, vol. 24, no. 2, pp. 197-217.
 P. Poba-Nzaou, L. Raymond, and B. Fabi, 2008. Adoption and risk of erp systems in manufacturing smes: A positivist case study. Business Process Management Journal, vol.14, no.4, pp. 530-550.
 P. J. Componation, P. A. Farrington, 2000. Identification of effective program-solving tools to support continuous process improvement teams, Engineering Management Journal, vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 23-29.
 S. S. Chakravorty, 2012. Prioritizing Improvement Projects: Benefit & Effort (B&E) Analysis, The Quality Management Journal, vol. 19, no. 1, pp. 24-33.
 T. L. Saaty, 2008. Decision making with the analytic hiearchy process, Int. J. Services Sciences, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 83-98.
 S. Adesola and T. Baines, 2005. Developing and evaluating a methodology for business process improvement, Business Process Management Journal, vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 37-46.
 J. P. Dismukes, 2002. Factory level metrics: basis for productivity improvement, paper presented to International Conference on Modeling and Analysis in Semiconductor Manufacturing (MASM), Tempe, Arizona, USA.
 F. Reyes, N. Cerpa, A. Candia-Véjar, and M. Bardeen, 2011. The optimization of success probability for software projects using genetic algorithms, Journal of Systems and Software, vol. 84, no. 5, pp. 775-785.
 J. Antony, M. Kumar, and A. Labib, 2008. Gearing Six Sigma into UK manufacturing SMEs: results from a pilot study, The Journal of the Operational Research Society, vol. 59, no. 4, pp. 482-493.
 S. Abe, O. Mizuno, T. Kikuno, N. Kikuchi, and M. Hirayama, 2006. Estimation of project success using Bayesian classifier, Proceedings of the 28th Internatiional Conference on Software Engineering (ICSE 2006), May 20-28, Shanghai, China.
 J. Davis, A. Fusfeld, E. Scriven, and G. Tritle, 2001. Determining a project's probability of success, Research Technology Management, vol. 44, no. 3, pp. 51-57.
 B. A. Nicholds & J. P. T. Mo, 2015a. Optimization of Manufacturing Systems and Processes Using Performance Effectiveness Function, 6th International Conference on Mechanical, Industrial and Manufacturing Technologies, March 6-7, 2015, Melaka, Malaysia.
 B. A. Nicholds and J. P. T. Mo, 2015b. Risk Assessment of Business Process Re-Engineering Projects, Open Journal of Social Sciences, vol. 3, no. 3, pp. 30-34.
 M. Kohlbacher and S. Gruenwald, 2011. Process ownership, process performance measurement and firm performance', International Journal of Productivity and Performance Management, vol. 60, no. 7, pp. 709-720.
 T. L. Saaty, 1980. The analytic hierarchy process: planning, priority setting, resource allocation, McGraw-Hill, New York, ISBN: 0-07-054371-2.
 L. Ocampo, and E. Clark, 2014. A Framework for Capturing Uncertainty of Group Decision-Making in the Context of the AHP/ANP, Advances in Industrial Engineering and Management, vol.3, no.3, pp.7-16.
 R. Müther and K. Haganäs, 1969. Systematic handling analysis, Management and Industrial Research Publications, Kansas, Missouri, ISBN: 0933684037.
 A. Done, C. Voss, and N. G. Rytter, 2011. Best practice interventions: Short-term impact and long-term outcomes, Journal of Operations Management, vol. 29, no. 5, pp. 500-513.
 D. F. Giannetto, 2009. Amping Up ROI in Process Improvement, Business Performance Management Magazine, p. 12.
 S. E. Sampson and M. J. Showalter, 1999. The Performance-Importance Response Function: Observations and Implications, The Service Industries Journal, vol. 19, no. 3, pp. 1-25.
 K. J. Watson, J. H. Blackstone, and S. C. Gardiner, 2007. The evolution of a management philosophy: The theory of constraints, Journal of Operations Management, vol. 25, no. 2, pp. 387-402.